2024 Software of the Year Award Co-Winner -Prognostics Python Packages (ProgPy)

NASA Ames Research Center: ProgPy is an open-source Python package supporting research and development of prognostics, health management, and predictive maintenance tools.  

Prognostics is the science of prediction, and the field of Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) aims at estimating the current physical health of a system (e.g., motor, battery, etc.) and predicting how the system will degrade with use. The results of prognostics are used across industries to prevent failure, preserve safety, and reduce maintenance costs.  

Prognostics, and prediction in general, is a very difficult and complex undertaking. Accurate prediction requires a model of the performance and degradation of complex systems as a function of time and use, estimation and management of uncertainty, representation of system use profiles, and ability to represent impact of neighboring systems and the environment. Any small discrepancy between the model and the actual system is compounded repeatedly, resulting in a large variation in the resulting prediction. For this reason, prognostics requires complex and capable algorithms, models, and software systems. 

The ProgPy architecture can be thought of as three innovations: the Prognostic Models, the Prognostic Engine, Prognostic Support Tools. 

The first part of the ProgPy innovation is the Prognostic Models. The model describes the prognostic behavior of the specific system of interest. ProgPy’s architecture includes a spectrum of modeling methodologies, ranging from physics-based models to entirely data-driven or hybrid techniques. Most users develop their own physics-based model, train one of the ProgPy data-driven models (e.g., Neural-Network models), or some hybrid of the two. A set of mature models for systems like batteries, electric motors, pumps, and valves are distributed in ProgPy. For these parameterized models, users tune the model to their specific system using the model tuning tools. The Prognostics Engine and Support Tools are built on top of these models, meaning a user that creates a new model will immediately be able to take advantage of the other features of ProgPy. 

The Prognostic Engine is the most important part of ProgPy and forms the backbone of the software. The Prognostics Engine uses a Prognostics Model to perform the key functions of prognostics and health state estimation. The value in this design is that the Prognostics Engine can use any ProgPy model, whether it be a model distributed with ProgPy or a custom model created by users, to perform health state estimation and prognostics in a configurable way. The components of the Prognostics Engine are extendable, allowing users to implement their own state estimation or prediction algorithm for use with ProgPy models or use one distributed with ProgPy. Given the Prognostics Engine and a model, users can start performing prognostics for their application. This flexible and extendable framework for performing prognostics is truly novel and enables the widespread impact of ProgPy in the prognostic community. 

The Prognostic Support Tools are a set of features that aid with the development, tuning, benchmarking, evaluation, and visualization of prognostic models and Prognostics Engine results (i.e., predictions). Like the Prognostic Engine, the support tools work equally with models distributed with ProgPy or custom models created by users. A user creating a model immediately has access to a wide array of tools to help them with their task. 

Detailed documentation, examples, and tutorials of all these features are available to help users learn and use the software tools. 

These three innovations of ProgPy implement architectures and widely used prognostics and health management functionality, supporting both researchers and practitioners. ProgPy combines technologies from across NASA projects and mission directorates, and external partners into a single package to support NASA missions and U.S. industries. Its innovative framework makes it applicable to a wide range of applications, providing enhanced capabilities not available in other, more limited, state-of-the-art software packages. 

ProgPy offers unique features and a breadth and depth of unmatched capabilities when compared to other software in the field. It is novel in that it equips users with the tools necessary to do prognostics in their applications as-is, eliminating the need to adapt their use case to comply with the software available. This feature of ProgPy is an improvement upon the current state-of-the-art, as other prognostics software are often developed for specific use cases or based on a singular modeling method (Dadfarina and Drozdov, 2013; Davidson-Pilon, 2022; Schreiber, 2017). ProgPy’s unique approach opens a world of possibilities for researchers, practitioners, and developers in the field of prognostics and health management, as well as NASA missions and U.S. industries. 

ProgPy Team: 

• Adam J Sweet, 
• Aditya Tummala, 
• Chetan Shrikant Kulkarni 
• Christopher Allen Teubert 
• Jason Watkins 
• Kateyn Jarvis Griffith 
• Matteo Corbetta  
• Matthew John Daigle 
• Miryam Stautkalns 
• Portia Banerjee  

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Bill Keeter

2024 Invention of the Year Winner – Thrust Chamber Liner and Fabrication Method

NASA Marshall Space Flight Center: A thrust chamber assembly (TCA) is the critical and central component in a rocket engine that provides thrust to propel a launch vehicle into space. Since the 1960s, while small improvements in TCA performance have been made, little has been done to reduce weight, improve development timelines, and reduce manufacturing cost. This invention makes dramatic improvements in all three areas. 

This Thrust Chamber Liner and Fabrication Method technology eliminates complex, bolted joints by using 3D printing and large-scale additive manufacturing (AM) to fabricate a one-piece TCA. This creates a combined combustion chamber and nozzle. A novel composite overwrap provides support with an overall mass reduction of >40%. The TCA is the heaviest component on the rocket engine, so every pound eliminated allows for additional payload. The benefits include significantly better performance of launch vehicles, consolidation of parts, and a simplified fabrication that reduces cost and lead time. 

A liquid rocket engine provides thrust through the injection of a fuel and oxidizer into a combustion chamber then expanding the hot gases through a nozzle. The engine’s core component is the TCA, which comprises an injector, a combustion chamber, and a nozzle. To prevent the TCA’s wall material from reaching melting temperatures, a regenerative cooling system is employed. Small internal channels circulate either fuel or oxidizer as a coolant before it’s injected into the combustion chamber for the combustion process.  

The TCA must withstand a wide range of challenges, including extreme temperatures (from cryogenic temperatures below -290 °F and up to +6,000°F), high pressures (up to 6,000 psi), demanding duty cycles that impact fatigue life, engine dynamics, and the reactive thrust loads. This necessitates the use of a variety of materials and involves intricate manufacturing and joining processes while maintaining exceptionally tight tolerances. The walls can be as thin as a few sheets of paper, measuring approximately 0.02 inch, increasing the complexity of the technological challenge. 

The design and construction of the combined combustion chamber and nozzle has several novel features: (1) A NASA-developed alloy, Copper-Chrome-Niobium (GRCop-42) was matured for the combustion chamber resulting in a 45% increase in wall temperatures. (2) The integral channel design supports effective cooling, manifolds, and a range of features that facilitate an integrated coupled nozzle and composite overwrap. (3) The chamber and its internal structures are produced using a NASA-developed (and later commercialized) process known as laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF). This uses minimal exterior material, allowing the composite overwrap to effectively contain the high pressure and various engine loads. (4) Stock material and integral features build the chamber nozzle onto the aft end using a different alloy, optimizing the overall strength-to-weight ratio. (5) Traditionally, AM requires a build plate onto which parts are fabricated, but this innovation can use the chamber itself as the build plate. (6) A large-scale AM process called laser powder directed energy deposition (LP-DED) was developed with a new NASA alloy for hydrogen environments, called NASA HR-1 (HR = hydrogen resistant). The AM employed to integrate the chamber and nozzle involves the use of two distinct AM processes and alloys, using GRCop-42 for the chamber and NASA HR-1 for the nozzle. 

A composite overwrap significantly reduces weight and provides adequate strength to sustain required pressures and loads. Various filament winding techniques and fiber orientations, guided by modeling simulations effectively counteract the (barrel) static pressure, startup, and shutdown loads, thrust, and gimbal loads. The unique locking features designed into the chamber include turn-around regions (referred to as “humps”) to eliminate complex tooling. 

Traditional TCA design incorporates multiple manifolds, adding unnecessary weight and bolted or welded joints. These joints necessitate exceedingly tight tolerances, polished surface finishes, and intricate sealing mechanisms to prevent leakage. Maintaining precise concentricity among the components and ancillary features, such as shear-lips to avoid hot gas circulation and joint separation, is imperative. The risk of potential leakage can lead to the catastrophic failure of the engine or the entire vehicle. The tragic explosion of the Space Shuttle Challenger serves as a stark reminder of how joint failure, albeit in a solid rocket motor in that case, can have dire consequences. By contrast, this design eliminates these vulnerabilities by employing integrated AM processes to create a one-piece TCA, dramatically improving safety and efficiency. 

Thrust Chamber Liner Team 

• Paul R. Gradl 
• Christopher Stephen Protz 
• Cory Ryan Medina 
• Justin R. Jackson 
• Omar Roberto Mireles 
• Sandra Elam Greene 
• William C. C. Brandsmeier 

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Bill Keeter

Ranger 7 Snaps the Moon

On July 31, 1964, the Ranger 7 spacecraft took this photo, the first image of the Moon taken by a United States spacecraft. 17 minutes later, it crashed into the Moon on the northern rim of the Sea of Clouds as intended. The 4,316 images sent back helped identify safe Moon landing sites for Apollo astronauts.

Until 1964, no closeup photographs of the lunar surface existed. Ranger 7 returned the first high resolution close-up photographs of the lunar surface. The mission marked a turning point in America’s lunar exploration program, taking the country one step closer to a human Moon landing.

Learn more about Ranger 7.

Image credit: NASA/JPL

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Monika Luabeya

Tech Today: Remote Sensing Technology Fights Forest Fires

It’s not easy to predict the path of forest fires—a lot depends on constantly changing factors like wind. But it is crucial to be as accurate as possible because the lives, homes, and businesses of the tens of thousands of people living and working in fire-prone areas depend on the reliability of these predictions. Sensors mounted on airplanes or drones that provide a picture of the fire from above are an important tool, and that’s where NASA comes in. 

In partnership with the U.S. Forest Service, local and state firefighting agencies, and the Bureau of Land Management, NASA plays a pivotal role in battling infernos. The agency’s extensive experience and technical expertise in remote sensing technology have significantly improved the speed and accuracy of information relayed to firefighting decision-makers.

According to Don Sullivan, who specialized in information technology design at the time, the Airborne Science Program at NASA’s Ames Research Center in Silicon Valley, California, was integral to that effort.

In the 1990s, NASA began a project to adapt uncrewed aircraft for environmental research. The researchers at Ames wanted to ensure the technology would be useful to the broadest possible spectrum of potential end users. One concept tested during the project was sending data in real-time to the ground via communications links installed on the aircraft.

That link sent data faster and to multiple recipients at once—not just the team on the fire front line, but also the commanders organizing the teams and decision makers looking at the big picture across the entire region throughout the fire season, explained Sullivan.

For the Forest Service, this was a much-needed upgrade to the original system on their crewed jets: rolling up a printout and later thumb drives with thermal sensor data placed into a plastic tube attached to a parachute and dropped out of the airplane. NASA’s remotely piloted aircraft called Ikhana tested the technology, and it’s still used by the agency to collect data on wildfires.

Since the introduction of this technology, wildfires have gotten bigger, burn hotter, and set new records every year. But in California in 2008, this technology helped fight what was then the worst fire season on record. A NASA test flight using a data downlink system provided updated information to the incident managers that was crucial in determining where to send firefighting resources and whether a full evacuation of the town of Paradise was needed.

Without that timely information, said Sullivan, “there likely would have been injuries and certainly property damage that was worse than it turned out to be.”

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What’s Up: August 2024 Skywatching Tips from NASA

What to look for:

A planetary rendezvous, meteors, and a “star forge”!

Two planets meet for a super close conjunction, the Perseid meteor shower peaks, and look for the Lagoon Nebula – a stellar nursery in Sagittarius.

Highlights

• August 4 – New moon
• August 11 – The Perseid meteor shower peaks overnight tonight! Provided you have clear skies, viewing conditions will be favorable this year, as the Moon sets by around 11:30 pm local time. Meteor activity picks up from then until dawn.
• August 14 – Jupiter and Mars have an extremely close pair-up called a conjunction this morning. They’ll appear just a third of a degree apart, which is less than the width of the full Moon. Find them in the eastern sky in the couple of hours before sunrise.
• August 19 – Full moon
• August 20 – The Moon chases Saturn across the sky tonight. The pair rise in the east shortly after dark, and trek toward the west together until dawn.
• August 27 –  This morning the crescent moon joins Mars and Jupiter to form a captivating trio. Look for them in the east in the hour or so before sunrise.
• All month – You can use binoculars or a telescope to observe the Lagoon Nebula all month in the first few hours after dark. It’s located in the constellation Sagittarius near the star pattern known as “The Teapot.” Similar in size and brightness to the Orion Nebula, it’s a cauldron of star formation located about 4,000 light years away.

Transcript

What’s Up for August? A super close meetup of Jupiter and Mars, the outlook for the Perseid meteors, and see a stellar nursery in the Lagoon Nebula.

During the month of August, the Red Planet, Mars, speeds past our solar system’s largest planet, Jupiter, in the a.m. sky. They have an extremely close pair-up, called a conjunction, on August 14th, when they’ll appear just a third of a degree apart, which is less than the width of the full Moon.

The view from NASA’s Eyes on the Solar System reveals the two planets arranged along the same line of sight, which is why they appear so close together in the sky at this time.

Mars quickly pulls away from Jupiter over the following mornings, but on the 27th, the crescent moon joins the two planets to form a captivating trio in the morning sky.

Saturn flies solo most of the month on the opposite side of the sky, though the Moon chases close behind the Ringed Planet on August 20th. The pair rise shortly after dark, and trek toward the west together until dawn.

The warm summer nights of August in the Northern Hemisphere make the Perseid meteor shower an annual favorite. This year’s peak night for Perseids comes on August 11th, and into morning twilight on the 12th. Provided you have clear skies, viewing conditions will be favorable this year, as the Moon sets by around 11:30 pm local time.

Meteor activity picks up from then until dawn. From darker viewing locations, meteor counts of 50 to 75 per hour are pretty normal at the peak.

The Perseids appear to originate from a place in the sky that rises in the northeast, so lie back and face roughly in that direction, but try to take in as much of the sky as you can in your view, as meteors can appear all over.

All the stars in the sky share a common origin in giant clouds of gas and dust called nebulas. And one such stellar nursery, the Lagoon Nebula, is well placed to observe in the August sky.

The Lagoon Nebula will feel familiar to you if you’ve ever observed the Orion Nebula – with the latter being just a bit brighter. Being about three times wider than the full moon, it’s still relatively easy to find, even under suburban skies, with binoculars or a small telescope.

The Lagoon Nebula is located in the constellation Sagittarius, which regular skywatchers will know is synonymous with the faintly glowing band of the Milky Way core. You’ll find it here, just above the top of the star pattern known as the Teapot.

The nebula is located about 4,000 light years away. Its oblong structure is about 100 light years long by about 50 light years wide. It’s a cauldron of intense star forming activity, with many young stars blazing brightly, causing the surrounding gas to glow. That glow is faint and colorless when peering at the Lagoon Nebula through binoculars, but long-exposure photos reveal its colorful nature. The bright stars are also sculpting the nebula, creating voids and turbulent knots and streamers of gas. The nebula gets its name from one of these dense, dark clouds that stretches across its middle, looking something like a watery lagoon.

The Lagoon Nebula appears high overhead in August for those in the Southern Hemisphere, and quite low for those at higher northern latitudes, but it’s visible throughout the lower 49 United States. If you can locate the stars in the Teapot, you should be able to observe the nebula too. To find it, follow a line toward the west, twice the distance from the top of the Teapot’s handle to the top of its lid.

Nebulas can be challenging to observe, even with a telescope. But with its large size and relative brightness, the Lagoon Nebula offers a great opportunity to see one of these star forges for yourself in August.

Here are the phases of the Moon for August.

Stay up to date on NASA’s missions exploring the solar system and beyond at science.nasa.gov. I’m Preston Dyches from NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, and that’s What’s Up for this month.

Skywatching Resources​

• NASA’s Night Sky Network
• NASA’s Watch the Skies Blog
• Daily Moon Observing Guide

About the ‘What’s Up’ Production Team

“What’s Up” is NASA’s longest running web video series. It had its first episode in April 2007 with original host Jane Houston Jones. Today, Preston Dyches, Christopher Harris, and Lisa Poje are the space enthusiasts who produce this monthly video series at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Additional astronomy subject matter guidance is provided by JPL’s Bill Dunford, Lyle Tavernier, and the Night Sky Network’s Kat Troche.

The What’s Up team celebrates the memory of Gary Spiers, who provided astronomy observing guidance for the series for many years.

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