NASA\/PUNCH\/SwRI<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Scientists used data from a coronal mass ejection that left the Sun on May 31, 2025, to retroactively test if they could improve forecast modeling. Scientists input the images into a computer model, which analyzed the leading edge of the coronal mass ejection over time. As it moved and evolved across the inner solar system, the model used the coronal mass ejection\u2019s speed and geometry to calculate when it would reach Earth.<\/p>\n
Twelve hours after the coronal mass ejection left the Sun, the model settled on a final prediction showing the storm would arrive eight hours later. That predicted arrival time was ultimately accurate to within a half hour, making it 10 times better than currently used methods, which only provide a 5-hour window. In addition, the model itself revealed when the estimate had stabilized, so that a space weather forecaster would be able to predict the arrival time with confidence.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe accomplished an order of magnitude better result than the state-of-the-art method with a really basic process, just informed by the fact that the coronal mass ejection could be tracked continuously across the solar system,\u201d DeForest said.<\/p>\n
These first results demonstrate the power of PUNCH\u2019s wide-field imagery to track the solar events as they travel out from the Sun. Ultimately, the scientists think that with more refined PUNCH data and better models, they could be able to forecast coronal mass ejection arrival times even further in advance.<\/p>\n
Beyond space weather forecasting, the images also help scientists glean new insights on coronal mass ejections. The high-resolution images allowed the scientists to see new structures in coronal mass ejections, revealing that the clouds of material are clumpier than previously thought and continue to evolve as they cross the solar system.<\/p>\n
The PUNCH data is also helping scientists better understand how plasma, the solar material launched by coronal mass ejections, moves across space. This information can help astrophysicists better understand plasma\u2019s behavior across the galaxy, such as in star-forming regions where it is nearly impossible to study on small scales.<\/p>\n
Southwest Research Institute, based in San Antonio, leads the PUNCH mission and operates the mission\u2019s four spacecraft from its facilities in Boulder. The mission is managed by Space Science Mission Operations at NASA\u2019s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, for the Science Mission Directorate at the agency\u2019s headquarters in Washington.<\/p>\n
By\u00a0Mara Johnson-Groh
NASA\u2019s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.<\/strong><\/p>\nPowered by WPeMatico<\/a><\/small><\/p>\nGet The Details…<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Using continuous imagery from NASA\u2019s PUNCH (Polarimeter to Unify the Corona and Heliosphere) mission, scientists predicted the near-Earth arrival of a solar eruption to within 30 minutes in an initial proof of concept test. The results, presented Tuesday at the Committee on Space Research Scientific Meeting and under review at the journal Space Weather, could [\u2026] Continue reading → <\/span><\/a><\/p>\n