{"id":11929,"date":"2024-09-11T18:16:36","date_gmt":"2024-09-11T22:16:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zobi.alcowep.com\/bourtagshdrevxnls658739\/nasa-finds-summer-2024-hottest-to-date\/"},"modified":"2024-09-11T18:16:36","modified_gmt":"2024-09-11T22:16:36","slug":"nasa-finds-summer-2024-hottest-to-date","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zobi.alcowep.com\/bourtagshdrevxnls658739\/nasa-finds-summer-2024-hottest-to-date\/","title":{"rendered":"NASA Finds Summer 2024 Hottest to Date"},"content":{"rendered":"

NASA Finds Summer 2024 Hottest to Date<\/h2>\n

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5 min read<\/p>\n

Preparations for Next Moonwalk Simulations Underway (and Underwater)<\/h1>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\"This<\/a><\/figure>
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This bar graph shows GISTEMP summer global temperature anomalies for 2023 (shown in yellow) and 2024 (shown in red). June through August is considered meteorological summer in the Northern Hemisphere. The white lines indicate the range of estimated temperatures. The warmer-than-usual summers continue a long-term trend of warming, driven primarily by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. <\/div>\n
NASA\/Peter Jacobs<\/div>\n<\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The agency also shared new state-of-the-art datasets that allow scientists to track Earth\u2019s temperature for any month and region going back to 1880 with greater certainty.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/p>\n

August 2024 set a new monthly temperature record, capping Earth\u2019s hottest summer since global records began in 1880, according to scientists at NASA\u2019s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York. The announcement comes as a new analysis upholds confidence in the agency\u2019s nearly 145-year-old temperature record.<\/p>\n

June, July, and August 2024 combined were about 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (about 0.1 degrees Celsius) warmer globally than any other summer in NASA\u2019s record \u2014 narrowly topping the record just set in 2023. Summer of 2024 was 2.25 F (1.25 C) warmer than the average summer between 1951 and 1980, and August alone was 2.34 F (1.3 C) warmer than average. June through August is considered meteorological summer in the Northern Hemisphere.<\/p>\n

\u201cData from multiple record-keepers show that the warming of the past two years may be neck and neck, but it is well above anything seen in years prior, including strong El Ni\u00f1o years,\u201d said Gavin Schmidt, director of GISS. \u201cThis is a clear indication of the ongoing human-driven warming of the climate.\u201d<\/p>\n

NASA assembles its temperature record, known as the GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), from surface air temperature data acquired by tens of thousands of meteorological stations, as well as sea surface temperatures from ship- and buoy-based instruments. It also includes measurements from Antarctica. Analytical methods consider the varied spacing of temperature stations around the globe and urban heating effects that could skew the calculations.<\/p>\n

The GISTEMP analysis calculates temperature anomalies rather than absolute temperature. A temperature anomaly shows how far the temperature has departed from the 1951 to 1980 base average.<\/p>\n

New assessment of temperature record<\/h2>\n

The summer record comes as new research<\/a> from scientists at the Colorado School of Mines, National Science Foundation, the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (NOAA), and NASA further increases confidence in the agency\u2019s global and regional temperature data.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur goal was to actually quantify how good of a temperature estimate we\u2019re making for any given time or place,\u201d said lead author Nathan Lenssen, a professor at the Colorado School of Mines and project scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).<\/p>\n

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\"This<\/a><\/figure>
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This visualization of GISTEMP monthly temperatures with the seasonal cycle derived from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office\u2019s MERRA-2 model compares 2023 (in red) and 2024 (in purple), with a transparent ribbon around each indicating the confidence intervals from the new GISTEMP uncertainty calculation. The white lines show monthly temperatures from the years 1961 to 2022. June, July, and August 2024 combined were about 0.2 degrees Fahrenheit (about 0.1 degrees Celsius) warmer globally than any other summer in NASA\u2019s record \u2014 narrowly topping the record set in 2023.<\/div>\n
NASA\/Peter Jacobs\/Katy Mersmann<\/div>\n<\/figcaption><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

The researchers affirmed that GISTEMP is correctly capturing rising surface temperatures on our planet and that Earth\u2019s global temperature increase since the late 19th century \u2014 summer 2024 was about 2.7 F (1.51 C) warmer than the late 1800s \u2014 cannot be explained by any uncertainty or error in the data.<\/p>\n

The authors built on previous work<\/a> showing that NASA\u2019s estimate of global mean temperature rise is likely accurate to within a tenth of a degree Fahrenheit in recent decades. For their latest analysis, Lenssen and colleagues examined the data for individual regions and for every month going back to 1880. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Estimating the unknown <\/h2>\n

Lenssen and colleagues provided a rigorous accounting of statistical uncertainty within the GISTEMP record. Uncertainty in science is important to understand because we cannot take measurements everywhere. Knowing the strengths and limitations of observations helps scientists assess if they\u2019re really seeing a shift or change in the world.<\/p>\n

The study confirmed that one of the most significant sources of uncertainty in the GISTEMP record is localized changes around meteorological stations. For example, a previously rural station may report higher temperatures as asphalt and other heat-trapping urban surfaces develop around it. Spatial gaps between stations also contribute some uncertainty in the record. GISTEMP accounts for these gaps using estimates from the closest stations.<\/p>\n

Previously, scientists using GISTEMP estimated historical temperatures using what\u2019s known in statistics as a confidence interval \u2014 a range of values around a measurement, often read as a specific temperature plus or minus a few fractions of degrees. The new approach uses a method known as a statistical ensemble: a spread of the 200 most probable values. While a confidence interval represents a level of certainty around a single data point, an ensemble tries to capture the whole range of possibilities.<\/p>\n

The distinction between the two methods is meaningful to scientists tracking how temperatures have changed, especially where there are spatial gaps. For example: Say GISTEMP contains thermometer readings from Denver in July 1900, and a researcher needs to estimate what conditions were 100 miles away. Instead of reporting the Denver temperature plus or minus a few degrees, the researcher can analyze scores of equally probable values for southern Colorado and communicate the uncertainty in their results.<\/p>\n

What does this mean for recent heat rankings? <\/h2>\n

Every year, NASA scientists use GISTEMP to provide an annual global temperature update, with 2023 ranking as the hottest year to date.<\/p>\n

Other researchers affirmed this finding, including NOAA and the European Union\u2019s Copernicus Climate Change Service<\/a>. These institutions employ different, independent methods to assess Earth\u2019s temperature. Copernicus, for instance, uses an advanced computer-generated approach known as reanalysis.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The records remain in broad agreement but can differ in some specific findings. Copernicus determined that July 2023 was Earth\u2019s hottest month on record, for example, while NASA found July 2024 had a narrow edge. The new ensemble analysis has now shown that the difference between the two months is smaller than the uncertainties in the data. In other words, they are effectively tied for hottest. Within the larger historical record the new ensemble estimates for summer 2024 were likely 2.52-2.86 degrees F (1.40-1.59 degrees C) warmer than the late 19th century, while 2023 was likely 2.34-2.68 degrees F (1.30-1.49 degrees C) warmer.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

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